Beware the Status Quo
By John Jarvis
The term VUCA was invented by the U.S. Army War College in the 1980s to describe post-Cold War international dynamics. It is an acronym for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. This clearly describes the state of play in so much of our lives today in 2026. In times like these, when everything is changing, the status quo is a trail map to obsolescence. We absolutely need to change with the times, if only to keep up. And nowhere is this desperate need for change more apparent than in the built environment, where commercial real estate stands as a prime example of an industry requiring clear, fresh and different thinking in order to navigate today’s VUCA landscape.
What’s changing?
Where We Work
The Covid pandemic caught us all by surprise, sending us home to isolate and forcing us to rethink our work. It turns out, working from home can work quite well. It is harder on some, to be sure, depending on circumstance. And with smart phones in our pockets and laptops on the table, we have the tools we need to gather as a team literally anytime and anywhere, virtually or otherwise. We can collaborate. We can brainstorm. We can problem-solve. In other words, we can be productive. Yes, in-person is better, it’s just no longer mandatory (at least at most companies).
How We Work
AI is an amazing technology, coming on fast. If you aren’t using AI, you will be left behind. Claude is your friend, and not just because it is opposed to fully autonomous drones with kill decision authority. Claude, and other similar AI tools, are amazing at collaborating, brainstorming and problem-solving. Yes, those were the reasons we were driving into the office or logging on to be with our teammates. Now with AI as a partner, we have another choice. Which likely results in a bit more screen time for you and me, and a bit less together time for our teams.
If We Work
Maybe you were alarmed to read the recent Citrini AI memo suggesting that white collar jobs are going to disappear over the next two years. And maybe you found solace in the Citadel Securities response, which suggests that new technology has always threatened to render labor obsolete, but never has, and that this time is no different. Both sides posit the extreme cases, and reality will likely deliver somewhere in the middle. Either way, change is coming. As of Q1 2026, the U.S. labor market has unexpectedly declined, with recent job reports showing a loss of 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. Whatever the numbers, here is the hard truth: blue collar jobs are being replaced by automation, white collar jobs are being replaced by compute.
What Needs to Change
As a business leader, if you haven’t taken a hard look at your real estate in the face of these changes, now is the time. Someone needs to ask some hard questions, like “how is your business changing, and how are these changes impacting the workspace you really need today and in the future?” With most of our clients, these conversations result in some combination of different space and better space, and in almost every case, at a much lower cost.
What Else Needs to Change
It is almost certainly time for a changing of the guard. By which I mean the brokers and advisors called upon to help companies navigate this new, uncharted territory. In today’s VUCA environment you need more than a broker. You need an advisory team you can trust to lead meaningful conversations in order to define your workplace strategy before launching into any kind of tactical negotiations. Prescription without diagnoses is malpractice.
And when you do launch into those tactical negotiations, you’ll need that same advisory team to drive a “price discovery” process every time, because in the current market, comps are irrelevant. It is simple economics really, where declining demand for office space has led to increased availability which has led to declining profits for most office investors. And, of course, those office investors (aka your landlord) are actively resisting the decline. They have called upon their army of agents to resist, and to promote a counter-narrative about the health and recovery of the office market. But it’s just a story. And it isn’t true. Yes, there will be pockets of strength, where the very best buildings in the very best locations may outperform. But those A++ buildings exist within an ocean of excess inventory of aging and ordinary office buildings. In this context, you cannot rely on traditional (i.e. landlord representing) commercial real estate agents to initiate the hard conversations about how to price these second and third tier buildings. The large broker firms can’t do it. Those firms are the front-line defense for their property owner clients, and their charge is to hold-the-line, to protect building values, to tell a story of strength, to protect the status quo.
Except, when everything is changing, beware the status quo. Let us show you a better way.
