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Welcome to the New Reality

Two things to keep in mind before we proceed with today’s topic:

First, owning or managing office buildings is honest work. I do not hate or even dislike those who do that for a living. How shall I say it? Some of my best friends are in the landlord and property management businesses.

Second, the economy is changing and doing so quite rapidly. Many economic sectors, led by the flattened technology industry, aren’t nearly as strong and vibrant as they were just a few months ago. And there’s no sign that the trend will reverse itself in the near-term future. It may not be abject “doom and gloom,” but it’s enough to get one’s attention.

I find it necessary to make such proclamations because there’s the tendency to shoot the messenger — the bearer of bad tidings. Such was the case immediately following my last column, in which I disclosed the surging vacancies in several suburban office markets. Many people — even those in the business — told me they had no idea the vacancies were so widespread. Some landlords and brokers were critical of my publicizing the fact, noting that present and prospective office space users “might begin to think it’s a tenant’s market.”

Imagine that. Welcome to the new reality in commercial real estate today.

When vacancies soar as high as they are in UTC, Carlsbad, Sorrento Mesa, Del Mar, and other environs, basic supply and demand economics begins to favor the demand side of the equation. A goodly number of commercial real estate owners, managers, and landlord brokers are apparently in some stage of denial, thinking this is a temporary blip. Some may even be so foolish as to think those tenants who are still in the market won’t find out there’s now an abounding inventory of space from which they can choose and that they can negotiate terms and conditions as equal players in the marketplace. I hadn’t even thought of that possibility until I later read Sandy Goodkin’s column in the Daily Transcript in which he observed: “Most realtors and brokers find it difficult to adapt to a markedly changing marketplace. They’ve lost their initiative — having gotten used to clients popping in and paying inflated prices.”

We are in a commercial real estate market downturn, the likes of which we haven’t experienced since the early 1990s. Downturns vary widely from each other. What’s different about the present situation from the preceding isn’t good news at all.

For one thing, we have much more vacant and available inventory in our suburban markets than we’ve ever had in past years. Ironically, those areas have been the home of our region’s major growth industries — high technology, telecommunications and biotech — the sectors that stimulate other areas of our economy.

A decade ago, there was surplus inventory but the economy was relatively flat. Today, the vacancy rates are soaring upward to new heights while the economy “soars” downward to whatever level where it will land eventually. Those are two conditions that should never take place at the same time.

During the last downturn, we all knew — and that everybody else knew as well — that there was a glut in office space. Landlords, their brokers and tenants alike faced up to the situation, and fair market value for office space at least helped to bring about economic recovery. Today, as mentioned earlier, there is still full expectation on the part of landlords that they can continue to fetch highly bloated prices for office space in their suburban projects. In a way, it’s like someone trying to sell the $30,000 Jeep Cherokee you see on every corner for the price of a $250,000 Bentley automobile.

Commercial office space is a commodity, just like any other product whose value is set by standard supply and demand forces. More so than many other product and service sectors, the commercial real estate market is especially cyclical in nature. What a particular office space might have brought a year ago — even six months ago — isn’t the case today.

The smart building owners who have an increasing inventory of vacant and available space — indeed those who are going to survive this downturn — recognize that the market is highly fluid and they are behaving accordingly. They, unfortunately, are too few in number. We need more such owners and managers.

Such behavior translates to doing what it takes to retain tenants who may be in financial straits and adjusting leasing rates based on competitive fair market values — not on some “wish-upon-a-star” leasing projections set back when the economy was much different.

This downturn is not momentary, nor has it bottomed out. Look around at what’s happening — and not happening. Companies — even law firms now — are downsizing and laying off high numbers of employees at all levels. These people are no longer occupying offices and workspaces. Growing numbers of nervous consumers are not buying cars, houses, computers, TV sets, and the like. Then, there’s the continuing high cost of energy.

Maybe not in the immediate or short-term future, but the economy is going to recover eventually. I say that on blind faith, because I don’t know for the life of me who or what is going to deliver us out of this current downturn.

Whatever the answer, in the meantime the first step is for everybody affected to acknowledge the office space glut — the new reality. Even though I’ve been the messenger of bad news, I see the situation more as an opportunity for the bloated commercial office market to undergo some badly needed corrections.

This process begins with office building owners and managers who have excess space getting aggressive in terms of adjusting their rates to the new market levels and behaving as if it’s a competitive market.

Who knows what a good dose of free market economics and enterprise will do? I’d like for us to have the opportunity to find out.

Jason Hughes is founder of Hughes Marino, an award-winning commercial real estate company with offices across the nation. A pioneer in the field of tenant representation, Jason has exclusively represented tenants and buyers for more than 30 years. Contact Jason at 1-844-662-6635 or jason@hughesmarino.com to learn more.



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