{"id":32566,"date":"2026-06-24T10:48:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T17:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/"},"modified":"2026-06-24T10:48:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T17:48:10","slug":"the-iceberg-market-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iceberg Market Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Because now is a great time to be a tenant<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>By John Jarvis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am often asked about where we are today in the commercial real estate market cycle. We can\u2019t trust the headlines, when one headline suggests that the market is suddenly tight again as a result of AI leasing demand, while another headline laments the demise of our urban centers. The honest answer is that there is a lot more happening than the headlines suggest, which led me to develop the Iceberg Market Model. What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Iceberg Market Model<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"634\" src=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-1024x634.png\" alt=\"The Iceberg Market Model Chart 1\" class=\"wp-image-32569\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-1024x634.png 1024w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-768x476.png 768w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-1536x951.png 1536w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_1-2048x1269.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To understand commercial real estate, you need to understand how cap rates determine building values. I wrote about that in an article titled <a href=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/san-diego\/blog\/2016\/05\/04\/pennies-nickels-dimes-dollars\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pennies, Nickels, Dimes and Dollars<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this article, I\u2019d like to introduce a few other factors that impact building values, including contract rental rates, landlord concession packages and net effective rents. These important details typically aren\u2019t mentioned in market reports, yet they are essential to tell a more complete story about the market cycle. They also help to highlight two distinct phases of a post-peak market in decline, where there is a lag in the decline of asking rates, which leads to (i) the <strong>Pretend-and-Extend Phase<\/strong> and (ii) the <strong>Capitulation Phase<\/strong>. Let\u2019s dig in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In commercial real estate negotiations, it is commonly understood that one of the most important deal points for a landlord to protect is the contract rental rate. This is because the contract rental rate becomes the <em>stabilized<\/em> rent a tenant will pay in the future, and that <em>stabilized<\/em> rent determines, via the cap rate, the future value of the property. I include the word <em>stabilized<\/em> because most negotiated transactions include some amount of up-front landlord contributions, also known as concessions, or a concession package, such as a tenant improvement allowance or free rent or a moving allowance. If you include the concession package, you can easily calculate the net effective rent that a landlord will actually receive in a transaction. And the hope of landlords offering these concessions is that a future buyer (or lender) will largely ignore net effective rents (and all those concessions) and instead look at the <em>stabilized<\/em> rent and the <em>stabilized<\/em> NOI that a property yields in later years. Put simply: the higher the rent, the more a building is worth, even if the landlord quietly gave away much of that rent in concessions in the early years of the lease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But what happens when things get really bad? Like the current market for life science lab space, where massive concession packages can now add up to 50% or more of the fictional contract rates? At some point, the fiction has to fold. Nobody is buying the story being sold and the building valuation model shatters under the weight of the massive concessions loaded onto a rickety scaffolding of unsupportable contract rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pretend and Extend Phase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"634\" src=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-1024x634.png\" alt=\"The Iceberg Market Model Chart 2\" class=\"wp-image-32570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-1024x634.png 1024w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-768x476.png 768w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-1536x951.png 1536w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_2-2048x1269.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once a commercial real estate market has peaked and begins to decline, we enter the Pretend and Extend Phase. By which I mean landlords largely pretend the decline isn\u2019t happening and look to \u201chold the line\u201d on contract rates, while also trying to hold onto their existing tenants by offering ever increasing concessions as incentive on lease renewals.\u00a0The Net Effective Rents curve actually demonstrates what is happening in the market during this phase, and the result is a widening gap between those unchanged contract rates and the steadily increasing concessions. Until the charade breaks down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Capitulation Phase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"634\" src=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-1024x634.png\" alt=\"The Iceberg Market Model Chart 3\" class=\"wp-image-32571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-1024x634.png 1024w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-768x476.png 768w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-1536x951.png 1536w, https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/The_Iceberg_Market_Model_Chart_3-2048x1269.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capitulation is defined as the act of surrendering, yielding, or ceasing to resist an opponent or a demand. In the Capitulation Phase, landlords no longer try to support the false narrative of building values propped up by elevated contract rates. Nobody\u2019s buying it, so they stop trying to sell it, and instead, they simply lower their contract rental rates. Yes, this will impact the building valuation, but nobody was going to buy the prior, propped-up (fictional) valuation story anyway.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I write this article at the end of Q2 2026, I see signs that we are now moving beyond the Pretend and Extend Phase and entering the Capitulation Phase, with asking rental rates coming down and pragmatic building owners simply trying to attract quality tenants by transparently meeting the market where it is. Which is smart. And refreshing. Maintaining a fiction over time takes tremendous energy and it isn\u2019t healthy for the market as it disrupts, or at least delays, the naturally occurring market cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where do we go from here?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, up, of course. There are definitely boom times ahead, as the market cycle takes its natural course, like it always does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But when will that happen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now that is a good question. What I can tell you is that the current Capitulation Phase, for all its challenges on the landlord side, is a fantastic time for tenants to negotiate. Landlords are waking up and meeting the market for the first time in years, and that transparency is creating real opportunity for businesses making space decisions today. It\u2019s a great time to be a tenant. And that\u2019s a headline you can trust.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Because now is a great time to be a tenant By John Jarvis I am often asked about where we are today in the commercial real estate market cycle. We can\u2019t trust the headlines, when one headline suggests that the market is suddenly tight again as a result of AI leasing demand, while another headline [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":105,"featured_media":32567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"6090,6093,6096,6097,6098,6099","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1062],"tags":[],"publication":[],"video_type":[],"coauthors":[1006],"class_list":["post-32566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hm-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Hughes Marino Orange County\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"765\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"420\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"John Jarvis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"John Jarvis\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"mcapek\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b78eb9afb68e88f19fb072b02587a226\"},\"headline\":\"The Iceberg Market Model\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":889,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"HM Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00\",\"description\":\"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg\",\"width\":765,\"height\":420,\"caption\":\"iceberg market model featured image\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/24\\\/the-iceberg-market-model\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Iceberg Market Model\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/\",\"name\":\"Hughes Marino Orange County\",\"description\":\"Hughes Marino is an award-winning commercial real estate firm exclusively representing tenants and buyers, never landlords, with zero conflict of interest.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Hughes Marino Orange County\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/HM-Logo-Inline-Black.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/6\\\/HM-Logo-Inline-Black.png\",\"width\":2369,\"height\":167,\"caption\":\"Hughes Marino Orange County\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b78eb9afb68e88f19fb072b02587a226\",\"name\":\"mcapek\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g4eea5b72f4c97b160b708ef197841622\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"mcapek\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hughesmarino.com\\\/orange-county\\\/blog\\\/author\\\/mcapek\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County","description":"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County","og_description":"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.","og_url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/","og_site_name":"Hughes Marino Orange County","article_published_time":"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":765,"height":420,"url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"John Jarvis","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"John Jarvis","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/"},"author":{"name":"mcapek","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#\/schema\/person\/b78eb9afb68e88f19fb072b02587a226"},"headline":"The Iceberg Market Model","datePublished":"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/"},"wordCount":889,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg","articleSection":["HM Blog"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/","url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/","name":"The Iceberg Market Model - Hughes Marino Orange County","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-24T17:48:10+00:00","description":"What we read in the headlines is only a small part of the story, with the important details hidden out of view, just beneath the surface.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/iceberg-market-model-featured-image.jpg","width":765,"height":420,"caption":"iceberg market model featured image"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/24\/the-iceberg-market-model\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Iceberg Market Model"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#website","url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/","name":"Hughes Marino Orange County","description":"Hughes Marino is an award-winning commercial real estate firm exclusively representing tenants and buyers, never landlords, with zero conflict of interest.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#organization","name":"Hughes Marino Orange County","url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/HM-Logo-Inline-Black.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/HM-Logo-Inline-Black.png","width":2369,"height":167,"caption":"Hughes Marino Orange County"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/#\/schema\/person\/b78eb9afb68e88f19fb072b02587a226","name":"mcapek","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g4eea5b72f4c97b160b708ef197841622","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f43d7ee711a94230f9631299350b01e4536b0b33d44a598e94c2990344593bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"mcapek"},"url":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/blog\/author\/mcapek\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/105"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32566"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32566\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32572,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32566\/revisions\/32572"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32566"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=32566"},{"taxonomy":"video_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/video_type?post=32566"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hughesmarino.com\/orange-county\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=32566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}